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Starting with Bitcoin ETF news, the first trading day of July saw a significant $130 million ETF inflow, marking the highest inflow since the beginning of June. In contrast, last month experienced consistent substantial outflows.
The first half of 2024 witnessed a surge in enthusiasm for crypto assets, leading to an all-time high for Bitcoin. However, due to price headwinds and the policy environment, volatility has decreased, impacting Bitcoin's performance. Long-term holders have started selling again, while a supply overhang continues to exert pressure on the market (possibility of selling from Mt. Gox depositors and Germany's Federal Police Office). In addition to this, the recent increase in selling by Long-Term Holders of Bitcoin, despite fewer miner sell-offs, indicates market instability and a vulnerable outlook in the short term.
The Fed's preferred inflation measure remained unchanged in May, slightly above the two percent target. Considering the weak GDP and declining consumer confidence, there are hopes for a rate cut in September.
We remain cautious and are waiting in cash, however our long term bullish case for Bitcoin is unchanged.
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