During moments of uncertainty in markets, it is natural to feel stressed about your investments. However, it is important to take a step back and reflect on the long-term fundamentals of your particular investment thesis. From an economic perspective, it is crucial to understand the supply and demand dynamics that drive market movements.

Focusing on these fundamentals, you can better navigate through volatile market conditions and make informed investment decisions and remember, staying informed and focused on long-term goals can help you weather the storms of market uncertainty.

With all this said, let us have a look at current Bitcoin supply and demand and the impact the halving has had in the past and will have in the future.

The last few weeks have ushered in some volatility in the Bitcoin market. Markets unfortunately don’t go up in predictable straight lines. Bitcoin is no exception, and although the long term trajectory looks very promising, the retraces are often violent.

After the July 2016 halving, from the beginning of 2017, the bull market had six retraces of more than 30% and a seventh of 24% near the eventual cycle top.

From the chart below, think about where we may be today?

Approx 113k of Bitcoin in Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has been on the move since the launch of the ETFs. This will no doubt have had an impact on price volatility in Jan.

Beware of corrections in $BTC, bids working!

There is still considerable risk in the markets, after taking profits on our $BTC allocation, we are going to remain patient and wait it out in gold ($PAXG). We believe there is a high probability of better risk / reward to long $BTC and potentially $ETH and other alts down the road.

“Bitcoin is a bank in cyberspace, run by incorruptible software, offering a global, affordable, simple and secure savings account to billions of people that don’t have the option or desire to run their own hedge fund” - MICHAEL SAYLOR, 2021