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Its taken me a while to get my thoughts together on the madness that is COVID19. Almost every conversation globally has been taken over and the hysteria seems to be getting worse.

At the time of writing, there have been approx 30,000 deaths attributed to COVID19. My thoughts go out to all the families who have lost loved ones to this virus and I know that nothing I say will bring them back.

My aim is to try and slowdown the hysteria and suggest a different way of looking at the numbers that are being presented, ask why they are being presented in this way and then hopefully help you to come to your own conclusions.

There is a conversation going around that talks about a bag of 100 skittles and 3 of them are poisoned, would you take one? This is supposedly referring to the “calculated death rate of COVID19”. Let’s switch it around a little, you are starving and haven’t eaten for week, there are 100 bread rolls and 97 are fine and 3 are poisoned, would you take a chance taking one and eating it if your life depended on it? Subtle difference but hopefully you get the point.

The next point I’d like to address is the confirmed cases vs number of deaths statistic. You can see all the COVID19 data on the World Health Organisation (WHO) website. What is puzzling for me, is why a known (deaths per country) is used with an unknown (confirmed cases). I.e. From a statistical point of view, you should really only be using “known knowns”. Confirmed cases is not a known known, there are countless un-confirmed cases, it is impossible to tell with any accuracy who has had the virus, how effective the test is by country and lastly how effective the record keeping is in each country.

So what else do we know, well we have a pretty good take on the population numbers as referenced on wikipedia - List_of_countries_by_population. So lets see what story we can tell about survival rates using July 2019 data (I have not used forecasted population numbers based on previous growth rates, but could have done so - the survival rate will increase if I’d have done it this way).

The countries listed below account for 94.07% of COVID19 deaths to-date (28258), so there’s no question on the sample size. The Survival rate to date *(to 4 decimal places) for these countries seem pretty high to me. Even Italy, with its >10k deaths, has a very high 99.9834% survival rate to date, with Spain being the other outlier with a survival rate to date of 99.9878%.

Survival rate = (1-(COVID19 deaths/popultion)*100

* I understand this rate will only decrease as we go if we do not adjust the monthly population numbers, but remember this was a test to get a feel for the scale of the problem, month on month analysis should give you the flattening and factoring the countries growth rate will also have a material impact on increasing the survival rate

Next up, lets have a look at the data in a slightly different way, i.e. The number of survivors per COVID19 death by a countries total population. It is simply the inverse of the survival rate calculated above. So here we see that in China, for every ~434k people, 1 person dies of COVID19. In Italy that number is 1 in 6041 (thats about 166 people in 1 million).

As per the Italy example above, I have include the deaths per million for our sample of 12 countries in the chart below and I’ve also included the estimated growth/decline in populations for Q1 2020. This data was calculated from the same data referenced above, available on wikipedia, which gives the population growth rate from July-2018 to July-2019. I have used these to calculate the estimated Q1 growth in populations.

What I find most fascinating with the chart above, is that for populations that are either declining or close to flat, the deaths per million number tends to spike, Spain and Italy being a case in point. Going deeper into the Italy number, it was projected that the population of Italy would decline by approx 19,200 by end of Q1 2020 anyway.

I do not mean to trivialise the Italy numbers but lets just put some perspective on the numbers. I’ve included further analysis by region which includes data from 2/3 of the worlds population (some 5.145Bn people of a total of 7.713Bn). I will update this analysis at some point to include more countries to get to 80%, but you’ll hopefully get the point.

The deaths per million people attributed to COVID19 currently sits at 5.56 people (or 1 out of every 179,9596 people globally have died from COVID19) and your survival rate, as it currently stands, is 99.9994%

In the same time that we have mourned 30k deaths to COVID19, the world has celebrated the birth of millions of babies **, the first 3 months of 2020 - the world population has grown by ~20.5m

**congrats my friend on the birth of Willow over the weekend

What do you think happens to the survival rate if we add ~20.5 million people to world population every 3 months - it goes up - i.e. we get closer and closer to 100% and the probability of survival increases.

So why then are the numbers being presented in the way that they are and why is the world going into a systematic financial melt-down. These are some of the questions that I’ve been asking myself:

1. Why focus on deaths and not survival?

2. Why use confirmed cases (its almost impossible to measure and using it will guarantee you create max fear with the 3/100 deaths)?

3. Why have main stream media focused on the death rates and not survival rates?

4. Why has the federal reserve gone from fractional reserve banking to non reserve banking (it matters because the dollar is the global reserve currency - wars have been fought over this behaviour)?

5. Why are we doing QE again if everything was so wonderful?

6. Why are corporates being bailed out?

7. Who benefits?

Having watched the movie, The Great Hack - Official Trailer here if you haven’t seen it, I can’t help but think that this virus is being used in a global thought experiment. The strategies employed are similar and to be honest, some of the videos we’ve seen circulating are incredible in how they’ve manipulated peoples behaviour in a time of crisis.

“It is impossible to know what is what - because nothing is what it seems”

…The Great Hack

The craze that started globally for toilet paper is a classic. I mean of all the things you really need in a lockdown if your life depended on it - toilet paper would not be one (think shower, river, sea etc to resolve toilet paper issue) and Maslow's hierarchy of needs for what’s really important.

From where I’m sitting, it looks like fear is the goal. Never let a crisis go to waste is the old saying - well this time was a master stroke. The central bankers have got their way to no-reserve banking, the politicians have a scapegoat for the pension crisis. What’s more its even been done in such a way to prevent people going out and objecting by enforcing lock-downs and quarantines across the globe.

In this extraordinary time, be safe, ensure you have diversified everything. If you haven’t yet looked at and educated yourselves on Gold / Silver / Bitcoin / ETH and other Crypto assets, start now! If you need help with the latter, visit Crypto Participation on our site to get started.

There is a great opportunity to learn about these now. Fiat currency (which is not money) is about to flow in massive quantities. Keep an eye open for giveaways and any attempted inroads made to reduce you privacy rights, they are never free and the people getting and asking for them are more than likely the ones who least benefit from the long term arrangement of handouts and state sanctioned monitoring.

To all the nurses, doctors and medical professionals, who have worked tirelessly in hospitals and clinics around the world (in-spite of the mass fear that has been created) - Thank You!

Link to Analysis here

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